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Credit Crunch and Property Crash |
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Sunday, 02 November 2008 |
October 2008
We seem to be in a holding pattern right now in Pakistan. Not a lot is happening on the political front. Electricity load shedding has decreased drastically bringing some relief to businesses and consumers. Clocks are to be resynchronized with the world time zone once again from the end of October. The weather is changing and Air Conditioners and Fans are no longer being used in Islamabad.
The Property Market is moderately buoyant with lower priced property being bought and sold. New property developments in the main sectors of Islamabad are still selling well. There has been an increase in the number of enquiries for land. It seems that during times of financial crisis, people still recognise that land IS the safest form of investment.
The Global Credit Crisis is in full swing and warnings are being issued daily all over the world about the economic meltdown. Scenes of the depression in the early 1900s are being replayed by many.
I've had calls from friends in Dubai who have been working in the real estate sector for the past few years and they are telling me that no-one is buying property in Dubai anymore. One of the larger companies with 30+ agents sold a TOTAL of 4 properties last month compared to 8-10 PER AGENT in previous months!!! Expect many of the real estate companies in Dubai to run away as the market crashes.
There is also an apparent EXODUS of people from Dubai who feel that Dubai no longer offers the lucrative returns that it did in previous years and this is execerbated by the various changes to the VISA regulations, labour laws, rent caps etc. that the government has been putting into place.
Many EMAAR buyers are apparently defaulting on their installments, preferring to lose the 5% deposit they have already paid rather than risk paying for a hugely ove rpriced property, just before a crash.
DAMAC is facing rumours that they are in financial difficulties. Thousands of properties are on the market for resale at very low premiums, zero profit or even at a loss on the purchase price. The authorities in the UAE have been making changes to the visa regulations and real estate laws and many of these are having a detrimental effect on the market there. Abu Dhabi, Ajman and Ras Al Khaimah seem to be facing similar difficulties in their real-estate sector.
The currency markets are reacting violently on a daily basis and HUGE swings are being seen in major world currencies on a daily basis. The UK Pound Sterling has dropped from close to 2 US Dollars per GBP to around 1.5 US Dollars per GBP (almost 25% in a few days !!). The Rupee seems to have dropped as far as it was going to for the short term and has remained largely flat for a couple of weeks at around 82 per USD. Australian Dollar is at 5 year lows against the USD.
Back in Pakistan, the political scene is still far from stable with rumours flying around about the current government being in trouble due to their unpopular policies and actions. The economy is still suffering and the current governments requests for monetary assistance seem to be falling far short of the requirements. President Zardari seems to have exhausted all other options and a loan from the IMF appears to be the last resort. Assistance from the IMF will of course carry many conditions which some feel would be disastrous for Pakistans future. The opposition appears to be sitting back and almost "enjoying" the frustrated efforts of the present government - perhaps waiting for it to fall flat before they can step in to "save the day".
It is notable that President Zardari's entourage, on his visit to Saudi Arabia didn't include Nawaz Sharif, who has a long history and close relations with the Saudi Rulers. Ex President Pervez Musharaf has apparently been predicting the failure of the current government within 2 months and there is much re-organisation happening within the various political parties as old faces change alliances and try to position themselves to scrabble back into power in case of an imminent change.
Life in Islamabad, however, is carrying on as usual give or take the odd bomb scare and increased security. Although business is slow in most industries, residents of Islamabad have adopted the "life goes on" mantra and have slowly returned to their usual way of life.
Phantom of the Opera is the talk of the arts crowd in Islamabad and several other plays and events are on the calendar. Wedding season is just around the corner and visitors are still arriving thick and fast to spend Eid in Pakistan and attend a wedding function or two whilst they are here and perhaps to pick up a bargain property. There is some talk of many trying to cut corners on wedding expenses as inflation continues to bite into personal economies but most hotels are already booked to capacity with wedding functions to cater to.
Let's see what November will bring ! Hopefully some relief from the current scenario of endless bad news.
» 3 Comments
1Comment
at Tuesday, 11 November 2008 20:46
This article definitely carries a silver lining ,nice to read something that brings hope coz without it ,its difficult to survive.As i've said before when the going gets tough the tough gets going.
2"Overseas Pakistani"
at Wednesday, 12 November 2008 12:40
@MzAsh - I think the HOPE that you are referring to is restricted to Islamabad ONLY. As for the REST OF THE WORLD, I didn't read about any HOPE - just crisis after crisis, crashing currencies, crashing property prices, political uncertainty and so on. I HOPE that things aren't as bad as everyone is making them out to be otherwise we'll all be moving back to Pakistan!!!
3Comment
at Monday, 17 November 2008 13:45
People the world over often contact us and I also keep track of the world economy. It seems that the economic crisis is deepening in most of the world with Germany and Japan already officially declaring recession and most other countries expecting to follow by the end of December this year.
UK pundits are predicting 3 million unemployed by 2011 and USA has already hit its highest unemployment figures for over 15 yrs.
Pakistan is looking better and better in comparison - the only way is UP !
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Last Updated ( Monday, 01 December 2008 )
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